Build your own Google
Here's something thats been filling my mind of late on the (too many) nights when I can't sleep.
Wouldn't it be possible to use a genetic algorithm to program a neural net such that the NN produced results largely indistinguishable from Google's "Page Rank" algorithm? If it is possible (and I think it is), couldn't Microsoft, or Yahoo! or some other well-funded source smash together a Google replacement (for search, anyway) and compete for AdSense revenue?
Note that such a competition would likely serve to raise, not reduce the AdSense rates. Websites would make more, while people who "buy" AdWords would likely pay less. Google (and its competitors) make a lower margin return, while the rest of us get rich in the process.
Yes, I'm discounting (to zero) all of that precious infrastructure that Google has built-up, along with their horde of ultra-smart people. Joy's law still applies, the number of smart people at Google is the log of the number of people at Google. Google may have a different base for the logarithm than Microsoft or the US Army, but they're still deep into diminishing returns with each new hire.
Jim on 11.10.05 @ 10:45 AM PST [link]
Intel + RF still equals zero
An ex co-worker of mine recently emailed:
Jim:
What is your take on the state of WiMax? What is it being used for and will it ever get any traction beyond backhaul? WiMax mobile? Anybody building chips?
I wrote back:
Intel has done a great job marketing/obfuscating between WiMax working at low transmitter power in unlicensed bands, where it can be no better than a mildly improved version of Wi-Fi, and working at high transmitter power in licensed bands. Can WiMax transmit much further than Wi-Fi in the cases where Craig McCaw has spent billions on licensed frequencies to broadcast at ten times the power? Certainly.
That apples-to-helium comparison is becoming more painfully obvious, and Intel's failure to protect the future of licensed Wi-Max (since Wi-Max has no future in unlicensed spectrum) from a vicious patent assult by Qualcomm will only accelerate the demise of WiMax, and quite possibly Intel.
Most importantly, free wireless hotzones are already being seen as a loss leader, even by Google. As Google leverages free Wi-Fi to push (at least) its local advertising business to critical mass, how likely are they to spend their time and money persuing licensed carriers, the FCC, and all the other baggage surrounding WiMax? Google owns fiber, they have no need for Intel's wonky broadband.
My prediction: WiMax will join HomeRF in Intel's collection of failed wireless efforts by mid-2008. Always remember, "Intel + RF = 0".
If you want to play at something *huge*, I have an idea for combining metro fiber networks with GigE bandwidth with cheap Free Space Optics devices. The idea is simple: fiber down the fence line (or inside an MDU) so everyone is connected at GigE speeds. Since the LECs won't let 'us' string fiber on their poles, and the munis want to be paid for same, we avoid the poles and cross the street with FSO.
Now we have a switched, VLAN-capable GigE network (architected entirely on Ethernet standards) connecting 100s to 1000s of households.
Turns out we don't want the network (broadcast domain) diameter to be > 7 for a variety of technical reasons, mostly having to do with time to convergence of the spanning tree protocol. 7 'hops' is 8 houses, or 8 blocks of condo/apartments. 8 office buildings.
Eight is number almost anyone can wrap their head around. Eight is enough. The Chinese think 8 is a (very) lucky number. Eight is "ba" in Mandrin, and "ba" also means "sudden fortune, prosperity". Confucianism has eight emblems, as does Buddhism. There are eight sides to the "ba-gua" (triagam) of the I Ching; eight "pillars of heaven", and so forth.
Next we need some bandwidth. Its not much fun to have this super-fast network with a soda straw connection outside of it.
Turns out we already have it. By leveraging the (very fast) network connecting all these homes, as well as the cable/dsl modem in many, if not each home, we can (in software) construct a device that allows us to leverage the total available broadband in the sum of all those cable/dsl modems.
People join the network so they can share files (TV? MP3s? Porn?) with their neighbors, but as an advantage, they also turn out to get much faster IP services, and possibly even some redundancy.
Remember as well that we can inter-connect these networks with FSO, so whole neighborhoods, indeed whole districts can be "wired" together with GigE speeds. Quite frankly, the applications don't exist today for much more than 10Mbps - 100Mbps anyway.
From there its straight-forward to invite Google and other metro fiber plays into the game, so the networks get some real bandwidth. Think 100Mbps for $20/mo, full-duplex to your home, with a chunk of (IPv6) address space (IPv6 already works on linux, freebsd, Windows 2K & XP and MacOS X.n.) You can host your own servers, your own PBX. There is an entire ecosystem ready to be built around real bandwidth into people's homes and standards-based IP/Ethernet networking. Google (or another metro fiber play) could inter-connect the districts (and eventually neighborhoods) with 10Gigabit fiber (Ethernet, again!) connections. Now you're sharing a Gigabit with seven of your neighbors.
Its built from the ground up.
Its entirely doable. We could transform the planet in < 5 years.
It takes some technology development, but nothing that is harder than "Sandhawk", which, I remind you, worked as promised, and cost as promised. Improving the Ronja (above) to GigE speeds at 100m is probably an early step.
Another thing: we can use an analog of the distributed CCA technique we developed for Sandhawk to build a distributed "WiFi switch" architecture that *preserves* capacity *and* security over a wide area. Yes, we can leverage 802.11n (MIMO) as well. We could, quite literally, make an entire city appear as though its was covered by the AP in your home and business. You could walk around and would not be able to tell that you've "roamed". Packets would hit your home gateway and be invited 'inside', so all of your home (or work) network(s) would appear to be local, even though you're miles away.
Does that blow your mind?
I've been considering writing up the "howto" for all of this and trying to get a meeting at Google. I have no desire to try to get it funded by myself. Its just too much effort, and I'm not very VC-friendly after getting handed Stalter as my reward for successfully swimming upstream in the HP-invested waters at Vivato for all that time. I did my part, and more at Vivato. As a company, we did may things wrong, and I did many things wrong, but we had a chance to deliver on most of the outrageous claims (sorry, I can't fix multi-channel until we can fix the client devices) that the HP-nauts wholesaled for eventual resale to the investors and customers.
For my efforts, I got anally raped at the hands of a 10mW intellect named "Don". Fuck the VCs.
Are you ready to get the band back together or was your query due to some WiMax startup looking at you for executive talent?
Jim
Jim on 11.10.05 @ 10:26 AM PST [link]
The good thing about being a guy is...
Brad,
It would be difficult for me to be any more miserable right now, I feel like the worst person ever. First, let me start by saying that I am truly truly sorry, and I hate myself for hurting you. Of all the people in the whole entire world, you were honestly the last person that I would ever want to wrong in any way. There is no excuse at all for anything that happened, so I won't even try other than to say all of us had WAY too much to drink, and I did a stupid thing. I can handle you being pissed at me, I absolutely deserve it, I can even handle the ugly words that were exchanged between us, what I can't handle is thinking that you see me as a different person. It is weird, I feel like I just went through a horrible break up or something. The world looked funny yesterday, I couldn't crack a smile if you paid me, there are songs I can't listen to, and I just ! feel beyond crushed. I don't know if you meant everything you said to me, and I am hoping that you didn't. I know that I was wrong on many levels, but I am also hoping that this is something that we can deal with. I know it sounds totally crazy and stupid, but you have come to play such a significant role in my life, I can't imagine my days without you. It is totally strange and weird to say that, and you could say that my behavior didn't reflect that, and you would be correct. I hate feeling like you hate me, and I hate feeling like all of your friends think I am a terrible person, because I am not. I know there is nothing I can say or do to take back what happened, but I just want you to know that fighting with you was just about the worst thing I could have ever imagined. It was right up there with one of the ugliest nights of my life, and I would give anything in the world to rewind and fix it. I am not sure if you will respond to this, part of me thinks that you won't. If not today, then maybe some other time. Also, thanks for getting my stuff together, although I think my sunglasses are still at your house, if you could keep your eyes peeled for them that would be great. I can't even focus or work today, I can't eat, I seriously feel like it was an ugly break up, and I am hoping against hopes that it was not that and you are not done with me.
Please don't cut me off, I really don't think I can handle that.
I am so sorry.
Elizabeth
Dear Elizabeth,
Thank you for your concern. I'll be sure to file it away under "L" for "Long-winded diatribes from drunken wh0res I couldn't care less about".
You did a stupid thing huh? No...doing long division and forgetting to carry the one is "a stupid thing"; Mixing in a red sock with a load of whites is "a stupid thing"; Bl0wing some guy in a bathroom for 45 minutes while I sit at the bar wondering if you're taking so long because you ate too much bran that morning isn't as much a "Stupid thing" as it is grounds for permanent removal from my social calendar.
To be honest, I'm not sure if it was more amusing that you went and degraded yourself in a public toilet not once but twice in a 2 hour span, or that you seemed to think that by saying "Well, I didn't F0ck him" somehow gave you a clean slate.
So forgive me if I couldn't care less if the world "looked funny" to you yesterday. Since your world revolves around blow dryers, golden retrievers, Prada Bags and Jelly Beans, I'm sure it must have been most unsettling to actually have to consider someone else's feelings for 24 hours straight. The good news for you is that my friends don't think you're a terrible person, they just think you're the average run of the mill cuum-guzzling blond who commands about as much respect as your average child p0rn collector. I could be wrong but, it's pretty hard to respect some B&T chick who comes out to spend the night at my place even though she's seeing someone else in New jersey and winds up tongue-bathing the ta1nt of anyone who decides 30 minutes of droning commentary on Colin Farrell's new haircut is worth putting up with for a hand j0b in the men's room. The good thing about being a guy is that when I eventually bump into the young lad who f1nger-blasted you on top of a towel dispenser last saturday, we'll have a shot and laugh our heads off about the time it happened.
By the way, for the amount of time you claim to spend in spin class you really must be doing something wrong to sport the thunder thighs you do. Watching you parade around my bedroom in a thong was a little like watching sea lions mate. Thought you might like to know.
PS. I BCC'd about 100 people on this email.
Talk to you never,
Brad
link
p.s. for those who aren't acquainted with the term "B & T" is Manhattan "in-crowd" speak for "outsider", as in Bridges and Tunnels, and those who use them to get to Manhattan. And yes, all the character substitutions were in the original.
Jim on 11.10.05 @ 10:11 AM PST [link]