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01/06/2005: "Spokane Sex Offenders, redux"

A couple days ago I wrote "Kid-friendly? Not when most of Washington state's registered sex offenders live in Spokane." This seems to have raised a few hackles. I guess its not a nice feeling to have someone say that you live in a town that attracts the type of people who do violence against children. Tom Sowa, from the Spokane newspaper, wrote in. I'll just quote in-full:

Hi Jim

I could have a good part time job running down the misinformation you're spewing on SDU.

Don't care how long you rant about Vivato, go ahead if it makes you happy. But you're off base a ton on the sex offenders statement you posted recently. Love to see if you're willing to fess up the error.

Go to the above link [ed: note that I've put the link in-line here.] and do an offenders search for a downtown Spokane address, running 15 miles in any radius. When I did I got 152 names within Spokane, for all level offenders.  Is this a good number?  Probalby not dead on but good enough for purposes here.

Then do the same with King County, which is seven times roughly the size of Spokane County. You'll get something like 210 offenders of all types. 

I didn't even bother with the other metros like Tacoma, Yakima, Wenatchee or the Tri-Cities. Whatever that number, it probably comes to at least another 120 offenders.

What does that say about the majority of the state's sex offenders?  I'd say the majority are not in Spokane County.

I'm going the extra mile, because I know you're busy with your day job, and making sure I get the full statistical county profile from the state DOC people. I'll gladly share them with you.

So go ahead and do your rant, but get the facts right, can you??


We'll just use Tom's numbers here. Note carefully that while he regards the report as "all levels", in reality that site only returns level II and level III offenders. The dangerous kinds. We'll return to this is a bit.

According to the US Census King County's 2003 population is estimated at 1,761,411 while Spokane County's estimated 2003 population is 431,027.

Normalizing, in Spokane 352 out of every million residents are registered sex offenders, while in King County only 119 of every million residents are registered sex offenders. One way of restating this is that if you live in Spokane, one of your neighbors, perhaps the person you see at the playground when you take your kids there, and indeed, anyone you meet is 300% as likely to be a registered sex offender, whom the state has decided has a high probability of doing it again, compared to those you'll meet walking around Seattle.

Lets look at it another way, those same US Census links will show that Spokane county has an area of 1,764 square miles, and that the 2000 density was 237 persons per square mile, while King County is an are of 2,126 square miles (hardly 7X, Tom) and a (2000) density of 817 persons per square mile. Now, if we do a little math (again using Tom's numbers) you'll see that the density of sex offenders in Spokane County is 11.6 per square mile, while in King County its 10.1. Here, the *density* of sex offenders *per square mile* is over 14% higher in Spokane County than King County.

Yes Tom, I admit my error. Numerically the rest of Washington has more registered sex offenders. But in Spokane you are *much* more likely to rub up against one, and only one of you will enjoy it.

Now lets look at growth of this class of your local population, Spokane. On the Spokane Police Offender Registration page, you'll find that in 1999, Spokane had 25 "Level II" and 47 "Level III" registered sex offenders. Using Tom's numbers (again), you now have 152 (combined). This represents a 211% increase in the last five years. Spokane's population hasn't been growing at anywhere near that rate, so the problem is, by definition, getting much worse. I allow that it is possible that registration only started in 1990, and that more people are registering with time. It is also possible that with King County's greater population density, more people are aware of the presence of someone who is subject to these registration requirements, and this induces those subject to registration to move to places like Spokane.

While I still lived there, I asked a lot of people about the apparent phenomena of Spokane's spiraling growth in registered sex offenders. The theory I was most often offered is that a person exiting the penal system in Washington State is likely to prefer Spokane because its less expensive to live there. Spokane also has vast areas where the misfortunate have taken over the neighborhood. Spokane's downtown area is a ghetto, full of individuals whom "society" would rather ignore or forget. The Spokane Police department is so awash in violent crime that property crimes are often not even investigated. I shudder to think what downtown Spokane might be like in another five years unless the citizens of Spokane manage to make the situation better. Somehow.

In other news, the Catholic Church in Spokane filed Chapter 11 in an effort to contain the financial damage of over 28 pending suits representing over 60 individuals. If you read through the Spokane Diocese site, it becomes obvious that the Bishop knows that more people have yet to come forward. The Spokesman Review thinks its fair for the Spokane Diocese to hide its assets and use the US Bankruptcy courts to shield itself from what must be an approaching tsunami of the angry and abused. There are apparently more articles in the Review, but they are hidden behind a costwall.

The Catholic Church in Seattle recently settled 12 cases for $1.8m. There are other cases, but the Seattle Diocese appears to be attempting to set a precedent of around $150k per case.

p.s. I was tempted to title this posting "Spokane Fucks Kids".